The long awaited day has finally come, it’s time for the world to find out their favorite players' fate in Cooperstown. There’s sure to be controversy as always; accusations of steroids loom over some of the all time greats like Bonds, Sosa, and Manny Ramirez. For the first time Alex Rodriguez’ name is on the ballot, and for the last time (excluding possibly the Veterans Committee) Roger Clemens’ fate will be decided. Many questions are asked: “Should the poor morality of great players like Curt Schilling and Omar Vizquel have an impact on their place in Cooperstown?”, “How much of an impact did steroids have on Bonds, Clemens, and Ortiz?”, “Did David Ortiz even use steroids at all?. Tonight some of those questions will be answered via the “Baseball Writers’ Associations of America” voters. Coverage starts at 4PM EST on MLB Network.
Who is on the ballot?
Returning Candidates
Curt Schilling
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Scott Rolen
Omar Vizquel
Billy Wagner
Todd Helton
Garry Sheffield
Andruw Jones
Jeff Kent
Manny Ramirez
Sammy Sosa
Andy Pettitte
Mark Buehrle
Torii Hunter
Bobby Abreu
Tim Hudson
First Year Candidates
David Ortiz
Alex Rodriguez
Ryan Howard
Mark Teixeira
Jimmy Rollins
Tim Lincecum
Prince Fielder
Justin Morneau
Carl Crawford
Joe Nathan
Jake Peavy
Jonathan Papelbon
A.J. Pierzynski
Now let’s get some things out of the way. First, the one and dones. These are the first time candidates who receive less than five percent of the vote, which means they will not return to the ballot next year. This year's “one and dones” will most likely be A.J. Pierzynski, Mark Teixeira, Jake Peavy, Carl Crawford, Prince Fielder, Jonathan Papelbon, and Justin Morneau. Thanks to “ballot trackers” anyone is able to see public ballots, and we can get a gist of which players will be in and out of contention. Of the 194 public ballots (49.5% of total), Peavy, Fielder, and Crawford have no votes and Papelbon, Teixeira, Morneau and Pierzysnki have one. The chances of them even staying on next year's ballot are close to impossible, so it’s safe to say they can be eliminated from future Hall of Fame discussion. Close to the “one and done” conversation but not quite there are Ryan Howard, Tim Lincecum, and Joe Nathan. Right now the only three first year candidates who are pretty much safe for next year's ballots are David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez, and Jimmy Rollins. They all stand above the five percent mark from the viewable ballots. Let’s move on to the next category of candidates, the sub-five percent returning players.
Things aren’t looking great for the three second year candidates. It’s important to note that each voter can select up to ten candidates on their ballots, so with new candidates arriving it’s inevitable that players will lose votes. With the current accessible ballots, Tim Hudson and Torii Hunter have net losses of -3 and -5 respectively (# of gained votes Vs. # of lost votes), and are both below five percent. Mark Buehrle is on thin ice, with a net loss of -3 and sitting just above five percent at 5.2%. There is a not-so unbelievable possibility that it could be their last years on the ballot as well. Don’t be surprised to see fifth year candidate Omar Vizquel dip below five percent too. He currently has a staggering -48 net loss, amidst some pretty serious scandals that have come out against the Shortstop. Once thought of to be a possible Hall of Famer, the chances of that ever happening are getting smaller day by day. Two more candidates on the brink of elimination are Bobby Abreu and Andy Petitte (-2 and -9 respectively). Both of them are sitting right above the ten percent mark, and if the rates continue, they could be removed from next year's ballots.
On the positive side of things, the light is shining brighter every day for Helton, Jones, Rolen, and Wagner. Neither of the four are close to their tenth year and rates are trending up every year, so it seems like we will see most of them in Cooperstown some day. After Larry Walker was inducted, the argument for Todd Helton is growing stronger each day. With that being said, Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield, plagued by PED accusations, both have negative rates and things don’t look good for them. It wouldn’t be a surprise if neither of them are inducted to Cooperstown one day. Although rates are climbing up for the two of them, the fact that Bonds and Clemens will not be inducted to The Hall by The Writer’s Association makes the argument for the formers increasingly dim.
The most exciting part of Hall of Fame voting each year besides the inductees are the tenth year candidates. This year, only Bonds, Clemens, Schilling and Sosa are in their tenth year, and it is incredibly safe to say that none of those four will make the hall. While both Bonds and Clemens sit above the 75% mark (77.8% and 76.8% respectively), it’s known that the anonymous ballots generally don’t favor the PED guys, so expect those numbers to fall below 75%. For Curt Schilling, numerous morality issues plus his request to not be voted for are the reasons he is being kept off of many voters ballots. Schilling has stated that he doesn’t think he’s a Hall of Famer, but he’s okay with the Veterans Committee deciding his fate. Out of these four guys, if one player definitely won’t make the hall, It’s Sammy Sosa. He currently is on only 24.2% of the accessible ballots, and it is mathematically impossible for him to get in. Maybe one day we will see all four of them get elected via the Veterans Committee, but for now it’s not looking good.
You may find yourself asking, “Well who will make the Hall of Fame this year?”. And to be honest, it’s really a one man show. David Ortiz is in his first year on the ballot, and is already sitting at 83.5%. And while he infamously tested positive for steroids in 2003, the test he was a part of was controversial and the commissioner of baseball Rob Manfred even said not to trust it. Ortiz is arguably the greatest designated hitter of all time, and his career is filled with many accomplishments (10x All Star, 3x World Series, WS MVP). He is one of the greatest postseason players of all time as well and a legend in Red Sox Nation. The majority of the time a player is above 80% on the viewable ballots, he makes The Hall. With Ortiz, it’s not a matter of if, but when. So if any player has the chance to be inducted in 2022, it’s David Ortiz.
As always, you can find me over on my twitter @redsoxreactions. Any feedback and/or questions are greatly appreciated. Coverage for the Hall of Fame announcements starts tonight at 4 PM EST, and the inductee(s) will be revealed at 6 PM. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the show!
Comments